It never ceases to amaze me how so many people buy into Betfair and gambling systems thinking they are actually going to work, but we have all been guilty of it at one time or another, many just don’t admit to it.
I have on my computer a file containing just about every conceivable gambling system that has ever been written. Honestly, it must be about 5 GB’s in size, and most of them are absolute crap, but they sound good when marketing them, and the gullible are always on the lookout for the next ‘big thing’, or that genuine ‘Holy Grail’ they have been searching for over the last 20 years.
Now I know people who have literally lost their shirts through gambling, and I also know people who have made a bundle, paid their debts off, and live comfortably through gambling, and there is a common theme amongst those who make their gambling, or trading pay. They test far more than the average Joe, and the results always show this.
Before I go into detail on this article, here is a snippet of the testing I am currently doing:
I will discuss more about this, and the profit I made further down this article. The above was taken from my written notes on some testing I am currently undertaking for a system I personally created, and have been monitoring.
I spend half of my waking hours testing new variables for systems, and strategies I think have possibilities. I enjoy doing so, because it means that I am usually always ahead of the game, and do you want to know something? Sometimes the most simple systems can be the most profitable – when they are tweaked with an experienced head.
The problem with most people is that they will ALWAYS be looking for that easy option, like they are somehow living in a fantasy world where fairies are invited into their bedrooms on a nightly basis after being promised a share of the ‘winnings’ – if only the said fairies would just partake and offer them their promised land of a Betfair or gambling system that would put them out of their misery – and a misery it usually is!
Now most gamblers I know will always be on the lookout for something they may have overlooked, or to see if they can find an angle (not an angel, or a fairy for that matter…) of some kind that they may have overlooked in their zest for an increased bundle of the pound notes that we all love in this nag game (I know, we don’t use them any more, but it was just a figure of speech).
Why most Betfair systems just do not work.
Most systems do not work, because they have actually been created to be as stupid as the person creating them (who probably also has a chocolate fireguard). Seriously, think about it. If you had something that worked for you, would you decide to give it a fanciful name and sell it to the general public? Of course you bloody wouldn’t. You would simply milk the little fecker for all it was worth, and sit there at night with a massive grin on your boat whilst your missus is watching Eastenders.
Now don’t get me wrong, I KNOW there are Betfair systems that work, because I have made a fair amount of money myself using them, BUT, the ones that have always worked for me are the Betfair or gambling systems that I have tweaked, adjusted and tested on a decent timescale.
Let me just repeat that process:
- Tweak again…
The megafile of systems I have on my computer just serve as a spring board for my testing. I have read all of them over the years of collecting them, or at least glanced over them because I can usually see immediately if there is any merit in them. Some are frankly pathetic, some are general knowledge, and some, just some (and I mean a handful out of the thousands of systems my megafile contains) have ‘slithers’ of information in them that are worth testing – slithers, that once tested will give an indicator as to their merit.
Can you create your own Betfair system?
Of course you can, and this, my friends is the very best way to do it. Sure, buy all the crap advertised that you need to, and then filter the dross from what has a genuine possibility to make a profit, and then test the hell out of it.
That way, as you are testing, you will notice things, notice patterns that maybe nobody else has not spotted. For example, I get asked all the time for my advice on Betfair trading, and gambling systems, and the conversation usually goes something like this:
Them: “I bought this from eBay, what do you think?”
Me: “Probably crap, but see what you think after you have tested it”
Them: “But I just thought you would know because of your experience?”
Me: “Well, I probably would, but each person will make different decisions based on their results”
Them: “Ah OK. I will let you know how I get on”
That is usually always how the conversations go, and usually I can see if something works by the way it is being explained, because although most people are wasting their lives chasing the dream, I have real life experience of testing for endless amount of years. In fact, I still have years worth of old newspapers going back decades with the racing cards and previous days selections in them, and I still use them, they are valuable.
You need to learn to test based on YOUR experiences, and not what failed gamblers are saying around the internet, and if you have ever watched any of my videos on the courses I have produced, then you will know how much I destest people who pretend to know about gambling just because they have been having flutters, and failing miserably for the last 20 odd years.
As I said little while earlier, you have to test based on your own experiences because you could literally put 20 traders side, by side, give them the same criteria and they will all have 20 different results, and this is because the mind changes, everybody is different and we will all make different trading decisions, or gambling decisions, just as in every other area of our lives.
Betfair and Trading Systems that work, and don’t work.
Now this might upset a few die-hards who think they know everything about gambling, and trading on Betfair, but I’ll go out on a limb here and say this:
Just because you cannot make something work, does not mean, and never will mean, that it does not work for others. I have tried and tested systems that people swear blind could kill dog if you whispered the selection process into it’s ear whilst it was asleep.
I had an email sent into me the other day by somebody who said:
“That will not work because lots of people online said it won’t”.
This made me smile, because as I already said, most people online who ‘think’ they know how to make money gambling, or trading, are totally deluded in their assessment of what is possible.
Do you really think that what REALLY works will be found on a silly internet forum, to be shared about by all the clowns who like the sound of their own voices? Of course it won’t, and it is pretty stupid to think that it will be – unless you have the naivety of an 8 year old. But it does not stop people going to forums daily in that hope that the world has suddently become altruistic and decided to do them the ultimate favour of passing them their childish wishes.
Bless their little cotton socks… 🙂
Testing and making your own Betfair system.
The heading of this blog post was based around testing your own Betfair systems, or gambling systems if you prefer to use bookmakers.
So, without giving the game away and divulging (as well as totally contradicting what I just said about forums and websites), I am going to share some of my own testing with you and what I look for.
OK, I am doing some testing on a system I have been testing for about 2 months, which has generated me some great results.
I write everything down on paper when I am testing, I am old fashioned like that, so I want to show you a section of the results at the bottom of the page I wrote about some trades and selections I had entered into on the 9th November 2017:
£1660 profit to £100 level stakes on Betfair.
You can see above that for the following I made the (again) following profits on my systems I have been testing:
£10 flat stakes = £166.10 won
£100 flat stakes = £1660 won
The above is actually without Betfair commissions being taking off, and I will also admit that some of the odds deviated from when I placed the trades, as some were taken at BSP (Betfair Starting Price), and in fact I was using £100 stakes, so although I anticipated making £1660 should the selections come in, I actually made a little less, about £200 less, due to fluctuations on the BSP.
The odds I wrote down above were the actual odds available as I was selecting the horses, and you can also see that on this particular day the longest losing run was 2, and the longest winning run was 6. It was a fantastic day actually, and some very good money made. (Let’s see if you can spot the obviously… I will point it out underneath the image!).
Here are the selections for the horses I chose that day:
Highlighted in blue were the wins, highlighted in yellow were ALL my selections for the day.
Now the eagle-eyed amongst you will see that even though I have it down as 6 wins on the bounce (the obvious I mentioned earlier), not all the horses and their race times are in the order I wrote them down on the Word document I used before printing off the days selections ready to trade them., but that matters not one jot, it is the profit at the end of the day that matters to me, and it should to you also.
8 wins out of 14 races is a fantastic result. It was quite an unusual day actually, and obviously not every day is like that, but as long as the profit is made long term, then that should always be the standard traders/gamblers are looking for, on Betfair or otherwise.
And just to satisfy your curiosity, the following day made £193 profit to £100 level stakes on the win market as there were only 6 selections! This was using the exact same selection criteria. And just out of interest, the £193 profit made , consisted of the following:
Place profits pretty much broke even, but with real trading/gambling, half the battle is not losing money. Once you reach the position of not losing and making consistent profits, the rest is building onto those profits, which is where your testing comes in.
If I had 2/3 days a week at profits on the 9th Nov rate, 1/2 days at the 10th Nov rate, and a mixed bag on the other 1/2 days, then you can quickly come to the realisation that very good money can be made, and then it is a case of testing over longer periods, which obviously I have always done, and continue to do.
As you can see, I choose certain horses using a certain criteria which I am not going to state here for obvious reasons, but I have got a few beta testers testing it to see if they can replicate the results I have received for a few months now.
I can see a few of you in my mind’s eye back checking if they were ‘all favourites’, and other checks. I will tell you no for a start, there are a few rules I place for this system which is why not all the horses qualified, and in fact the above page had many more horses on to begin with, and certain race courses were deducted and deleted from my final selection process, and the reason for these filters are as follows:
- I have previously tested certain race courses.
- I have the facts of previous historical data.
- I also play the law of averages a lot.
- I test many various possibilities with different markets. Place/Direct Bet, etc.
I am testing this Betfair system with the Betfair Place Market and the Direct Win market, because when you are testing systems, as I said earlier on in this article, you start to see patterns, and you can them come back and retest to see if there are any of nuances you can eradicate, or improve on.
It is ALL in the theme of testing.
When testing a system, Betfair or otherwise, that you think might work, you have to do a LOT of homework, and a lot of testing on possible outcomes.
I always use the ‘What If’ situation:
- What is this happened?
- Could this happen, and if it did, then how would it affect the results?
- Has this ever happened, check?
- What if I introduced this factor into the equation.
- What if I deduct this principle that could improve results?
- Etc. Etc.
Basically I test everything that moves, and every possible permutation on a potential outcome, because you have to when taking your trading/gambling seriously, and when you rely on results for a decent size of your income.
You also have to consider your attitude to risk, and your own personal trading style, as both these important factors play a huge role in the type of systems you may consider, or may think could work for you.
My advice for devising a Betfair system.
My personal advice would be to take a deep look at the markets and see what people are actually really doing. As with anything in life, you have to know your market, so if you don’t know a great deal about Betfair (or you think you do, but your reality (and bank balance) shows you that you know naff all of what really matters – an important distinction!), or the various markets they offer, then spend some time studying. I know, I know, nobodies likes to study or do anything that can produce a result in the future, you want everything now. I get it.
But guys and gals, if you don’t listen to anything else I say, please let what you do listen to be this:
There are no short cuts, you HAVE to do your homework and understand what it is you are trying to make money from, Betfair or otherwise. If you don’t then you could get all excited about the latest bit of crap to enter the market, lose a sh*t load of cash in the process, and this will be because you do not understand everything that is going on.
And by the way, just because you have made a grand doing matched betting, which a 2 year old could master, it does not mean you know anything about trading! Sorry to burst that bubble, but sometimes you have to be cruel (or just plain realistic) to be kind 🙂
When you do understand the markets, and have a detailed knowledge of Betfair, only then can you start to tweak and adjust to see if there is milage in the potential Betfair systems you are creating yourself. Don’t miss something critical just because you are lazy, and looking for the easy option. Nobody ever made any real money being a lazy sod.
Do you think I could have made almost £1660 in one day if I didn’t have a detailed knowledge of the subject in hand? If I didn’t test various systems for all they were worth? adjusting to results, and testing very many variables until my eyes were almost bleeding with tiredness? Of course I couldn’t have, but hopefully this does show you that when you are well educated on any subject, then the possibilities open up – with massive amounts of action/testing.
The easy options when making money with Betfair do not exist; or making easy money with anything for that matter, only in Disneyland and usually only when you are asleep…zzzz.